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Over the past week, bitcoin has fluctuated in a narrow range, which gradually shifted towards the lower border of a wide range of fluctuations. As a result, this week the coin successfully overcame the support zone at $45k and continued its downward movement. On Wednesday, September 22, BTC fell below the $40k mark for the first time since August, which triggered a local sell-off. At the same time, the coin quickly managed to bounce into a safe area and demonstrate several positive signals.
The first and most important signal is the appearance of a bullish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart of the cryptocurrency. If the coin continues to recover in the short term, then the formation of this sign on the charts may indicate that the local, but final, bottom of the market has been reached. If this thesis is confirmed, we can expect an upward wave to strengthen and move to the key resistance areas at $48k and $50k. Another local positive is a successful test of the strength of the support zone at $40.8k. Confirmation of the thesis about the formation of a local market bottom will mean a significant strengthening of this zone as a key support after $42.8k. As of 12:00 UTC, the next resistance zone will be the round mark of $44k, which acted as support in the upward movement.
Over the past day, the asset has risen by 4% and is quoted near $44k, at $43.8k. It is worth noting that despite the positive dynamics of price movement in the two-hour period, trading volumes still remain at an average level. In the case of a successful consolidation above $44k, there is every reason to believe that this figure will increase as the retail audience returns. At the same time, the local positive is diluted by the downward dynamics of the super trend line and fluctuations in the major technical indicators.
On the hourly chart, bitcoin encountered a powerful resistance and made a breakdown of the local ascending wedge. The RSI indicator and stochastic began a powerful downward movement to the 40 marks, and the MACD formed a bullish crossover, but failed to realize the momentum and began to decline. All this indicates a strong selling pressure in this area and the $44k mark has become an important boundary for profit-taking and selling off during the recent fall.
On the four-hour chart, bitcoin also broke through a local ascending wedge, but there is a chance to go up. Technical indicators express the caution of the market, and the reluctance to push the price higher. Despite this, there is a clear trend for a temporary period of consolidation: the RSI moves along the 50 zone, and the stochastic begins to decline from the overbought zone. At the same time, the MACD shows a clear bullish signal for growth and forms a bearish divergence, which may indicate further growth. The four-hour chart shows the recovery of the major indicators after a powerful breakthrough into the safe zone. If this pattern develops on the daily chart, the asset will break through $44k soon.
On the daily chart, the situation around the BTC price has clear prerequisites for another decline. The MACD indicator is below the zero mark and moves in the red zone. At the same time, the RSI and stochastic indicate a sideways movement, which may indicate a period of accumulation. The price can go in any direction, but the MACD clearly signals a decline, so most likely the price will retest the local support zone at $43k, after which it will continue to gain momentum. In the event of a bearish breakdown of this milestone, the nearest support line will be $42.8k.
There is a positive signal on the bitcoin charts for the completion of the correction and further upward exit. However, right now the buyer's market looks very weak: retail traders have not returned, and the whales have taken a wait-and-see position. Most likely, in the next few days, BTC will continue to fluctuate in the $43k-$45k zone and will end the week with an exit to the next range of $45k-$48k.
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