28.09.202118:29 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Wave analysis of EUR/USD for September 28. Euro balances on the edge of the abyss

The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD currency pair so far does without making adjustments. The assumed wave b has taken a longer form due to the decline over the past two weeks, and this is very bad for the current counting, since wave b has already turned out to be too deep compared to wave a. Therefore, the corrective wave b can go below the low wave a, and in this case the entire downward trend section can resume its construction, which will significantly complicate the entire wave counting. So far, I consider this scenario as a backup, but the decline in the quotes of the instrument recently makes us treat it more carefully. If the quotes successfully break through the 0.0% Fibonacci level, then the entire wave picture will have to be revised. At the same time, the picture below shows the nature of wave structures over the past six months. The instrument moves only through corrective structures, therefore, a corrective wave structure can be constructed.

There was almost no news for the euro and the dollar on Tuesday. ECB President Christine Lagarde gave a speech, which did not impress the markets and did not encourage them to actively trade. The amplitude of the instrument was only 15 basis points, which is several times less than that of the British pound. Thus, no matter how the markets tried to find grounds for more active trading, they failed to find them. US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also gave speeches on Tuesday. However, even after them, the instrument did not trade more actively.

In the complete absence of a news background, the instrument, however, continues to slide down and is already at a distance of just a few points from the 0.0% Fibonacci level. A successful attempt to break this mark will lead to a change in the entire wave pattern. But the wave pattern for the British pound has already changed, as the instrument began a new strong decline on Tuesday. Thus, according to the pound, the wave counting was transformed into a downward section of the trend. Since the euro and the pound very often move similarly, now we can expect something similar from the EUR/USD. Or the GBP/USD should complete its decline today or the next day.

Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the descending wave b can still be completed in the near future. Therefore, I still expect an increase in the quotes of the instrument and advise buying with targets located near the 1.1965 and 1.2036 marks, which corresponds to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. As a confirmation of this assumption, we can wait for an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 0.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1663. I do not advise buying without confirmation, since the descending wave can take an even more complex form, and then the entire wave count may require adjustments.

The wave counting of the higher scale looks quite convincing. But if we assume that the decline in quotes will continue, it turns out that the construction of a new downward trend section has begun. Wave a is actually a corrective wave b, after which the instrument has begun to build a new five-wave downward structure. Everything now depends on the level of 1.1663.