25.10.202111:13 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Wave analysis of GBP/USD for October 25: Pound continues to decline despite UK's growing business activity

Wave pattern

The wave counting for the Pound/Dollar instrument has become more complicated recently and may become more complicated again. The instrument made a successful attempt to break through the low of the previous waves a and e. Thus, adjustments were made to the wave pattern, and now it has acquired the form of a downward trend section, which is corrective in nature. Nevertheless, this downward section may already be completed, or it may acquire a much longer appearance.

The picture above shows that the last wave C can already be completed if it has taken a three-wave form. If it takes a five-wave form, then after the completion of the current wave d, the decline in the quotes of the instrument within the wave e may resume. And this wave d can already be completed, since on Thursday the quotes began to move away from the reached highs. If this assumption is correct, then the decline of the instrument will continue with targets located near the minimum of wave c, that is, about 34 figures. A successful attempt to break through the peak of wave b will lead to the need to introduce new refinements to the current wave counting.

Business activity in the UK is growing, while retail trade is declining.

The exchange rate of the Pound/Dollar instrument dropped by 40 pips on Friday. During the day, the instrument changed the direction of movement, which was caused by a fairly large package of statistics from Britain and the USA. This time, the most important data came from the UK.

In recent weeks there have been talks in the UK about a "personnel crisis," as many positions remain unoccupied, despite declining unemployment. However, as practice shows, British workers tend to occupy only the highest-paid positions and are not interested in working as waiters, movers, drivers, and farm workers. Thus, at a certain point, there was even no one to deliver gasoline to the gas station. Against the background of these events, retail trade volumes decreased in Britain, but business activity indicators increased at the same time. Although on closer inspection it becomes clear that retail trade declined in September, and business activity increased in October. Thus, we can talk about a certain stabilization of the situation after a difficult September.

However, the pound did not receive the support of the markets. If we look exclusively at the wave counting, then everything is going as it should go. The proposed wave d may be completed and in this case, the demand for the pound sterling will only decrease in the coming weeks. There will be interesting and important reports in the USA this week. This is especially true for the third quarter GDP report. And this indicator may deteriorate significantly compared to the second quarter, which may lead to a decrease in demand for the dollar, which contradicts the current wave picture. However, this may only be a short-term decline.

General conclusions

The wave pattern continues to raise some questions, although it looks quite convincing so far. It received a downward view, but not an impulsive one. Since the construction of an upward wave is continuing now, I advise you to wait for its completion before selling the instrument in order to build the expected wave e in C. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.3871 mark or the success of 1.3643 mark may be confirmation of the readiness of the markets for new sales.

The upward section of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. The construction of the upward trend section has been canceled and now we can assume that on January 6, the construction of a new downward trend section began, which can turn out to be almost any size.