01.04.202206:38 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Ukrainian-Russian conflict, day 37. Oil and the US stock market are falling, gas is rising.

The key US stock market indices - Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 - ended Thursday with a fall. Thus, after the strongest two-week growth, the indices have been falling for the second day in a row. From our point of view, a very important point is that all three indices have adjusted in recent weeks to their previous local highs. Therefore, if a downward reversal follows near them, then we can assume that we have just seen a strong round of correction against correction. Recall that the current fundamental background does not support buyers of shares of any companies. It's all about the same Fed policy and the geopolitical conflict in Ukraine. The Fed is not abandoning its plans to repeatedly raise the key rate and is also going to start unloading its balance sheet in the summer. From our point of view, the cycle of monetary policy tightening that has begun may be one of the strongest in recent decades. And to see the growth of the stock market in such conditions is very strange.

Well, everyone is talking about the geopolitical conflict in Eastern Europe now. Lagarde and Powell have repeatedly noted that the military operation in Ukraine creates additional risks for the global economy and price stability. Simply put, the war in Ukraine spurs inflation around the world, as well as creates a food crisis, and leads to an increase in energy prices. By the way, about energy carriers. The situation with oil is improving a little on the world markets. Yesterday it was reported that Moscow is offering India its oil at a 45% discount. The European Union is not yet ready to impose an embargo on Russian oil, so the "black gold" has stopped getting more expensive and, conversely, has been falling for more than a week. At the moment, you need to pay $ 100 per barrel. But the situation with gas is getting worse every day. At the moment, gas costs much more than $ 1,000 per 1,000 cubic meters. In some places, the price has already reached $ 1400. Against the background of such prices, Moscow desperately wants to renegotiate all long-term contracts with Europe under the pretext of "unfriendly actions and sanctions" by the EU. After all, Russia is currently selling its oil for $ 274. The Kremlin wants payment in Russian rubles and offers Europe to open accounts in Russian banks and buy Russian rubles there for further transfer for natural gas supplies. In Europe, such an attractive option has already been abandoned, but Vladimir Putin also signed a decree that from April 1, payment for gas will be accepted only in rubles. In general, it is still completely unclear how this story will end. But if it ends with Russia's refusal to supply gas to Europe, or Europe's refusal to supply from Russia, then the price of gas may rise even more. At the same time, Russia will have nowhere to put its gas, and Europe will have nowhere to take gas in the volumes that they pull from the Russian Federation.