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The GBP/USD pair also fell on Friday. It fell, fell, and eventually fell to the level of 1.2106, from which, in fact, the pound started to grow on Wednesday, when the US inflation report was released. Thus, in just two days, the US currency completely offset its losses, which many regarded as almost the beginning of a new powerful round of growth for the British pound. But, as we see, the market very quickly remembered that for some reason it had been selling the pound for a year and a half, and over the past weeks, the fundamental and macroeconomic backgrounds have not changed dramatically in the opposite direction. Even the notorious US inflation report, which made a lot of noise, by and large does not mean anything for the prospects for the US currency, because the Federal Reserve will continue to raise the rate, as it has done in recent months. Even if the pace of monetary tightening is weakened, the rate will still rise, and the dollar should rise after it. After all, the European Central Bank at the same time continues to feel as relaxed and imposing as possible. On Friday, the UK published a rather important report on GDP for the second quarter, which turned out to be negative (-0.1% Q/Q), but not as bad as forecasts (-0.2% Q/Q). Therefore, it was difficult for traders to understand how to react to this information, which, on the one hand, turned out to be negative, and on the other hand, it was better than forecasts. The pound fell just in case, although it seems that the matter is not in the British statistics.
The pound/dollar pair moved very well on the 5-minute timeframe on Friday. The first sell signal was formed to the area of 1.2186-1.2205, below which the pair settled at the beginning of the European trading session. After that, it went down about 70 points until it reached the nearest level of 1.2106 on its way. Worked perfectly and bounced off it. Therefore, novice traders could earn 55-60 points on a short position. It was also possible to work out a buy signal, but it still formed quite late, so it probably shouldn't have entered the market on Friday evening. As a result, one transaction and profit! Excellent result!
The pound/dollar pair soared sharply to the level of 1.2260 on the 30-minute time frame, but could not overcome it, after which it fell back to 1.2106. Thus, there is no upward trend now. There was a surge on Wednesday, after which the bulls' fuse dried up very quickly. Therefore, the pound may well resume its long-term decline against the US dollar. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow it is recommended to trade at the levels 1.2003, 1.2033, 1.2062, 1.2106, 1.2186-1.2205, 1.2245-1.2260. When the price passes after opening a deal in the right direction for 20 points, Stop Loss should be set to breakeven. There are no major events scheduled in the UK and America on Monday. Therefore, there will be nothing for beginners to react during the day. We may see another "boring Monday" and volatility may be lower than usual.
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
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