22.03.201710:35 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for 22/03/2017

Trading plan for 22/03/2017:

The strongest sell-off on Wall Street in almost six months has hit the market. EUR/USD is still close to 1.0830 resistance, but risky currencies are under pressure. USD/JPY is below 111.50, which is accompanied by more than 2% fall on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The WTI oil price continues declining and is at $48. The last API data prompted oil prices to return to the November levels. The report showed another big increase in inventories. With increased risk aversion, gold is rallying and is already trading near $1,250.

On Wednesday 22nd of March, the event calendar is bereft of important macroeconomic news, but global investors will keep an eye on Crude Oil Inventories data from the US and Annual Budget data from Canada. Besides, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce the interest rate decision later in the day.

Crude Oil analysis for 22/03/2017:

Yesterday's API report showed another strong increase in oil stockpiles (this time by over 4.5 million barrels). With a negative attitude to risk, this intensifies pressure on commodity prices. The official report on Crude Oil Inventories is scheduled for release at 02:30 pm GMT today. It is expected to deliver another increase in oil stockpiles, this time at the level of 1.9 million barrels. Any increase bigger than 1.9 million barrels can quickly make the crude price deepen its fall.

Let's take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture on the H4 time frame before the news is released. The market is trading below the black dashed trend line and it looks like some sort of a double bottom might have been made around the technical support at 47.09. Just below this level, there is a long-term trend line which might provide further dynamic support for the price in case of a breakout. Anyway, the technical resistance area marked as a gray rectangle is still the most important zone for the bull camp and only a sustained break above this zone might be considered as the first sign of a trend reversal.

USD/CAD analysis for 22/03/2017:

The Canadian Annual Budget data are scheduled for release at 08:00 pm GMT. An annual budget outlines both the income and expenditures that are expected to be received and paid over the coming year. It will be interesting to see whether the Canadian government will manage to cut the trade deficit and public spending in order to make the Canadian Dollar stronger.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The strong bounce from the technical support at 1.3275 resulted in another test of the gray resistance zone and this time it might be a successful one as the strong bullish momentum is supporting the view. In case of a breakout, the next resistance can be seen at the level of 1.3419, just below the intraday dashed black trend line. If bulls fail to break it, then the price will likely get back to the trading range.

NZD/USD analysis for 22/03/2017:

The most important event of the day is the RBNZ interest rate decision scheduled for release at 08:00 pm GMT. Market participants expect no changes to the interest rate that is currently at the level of 1.75%. The RBNZ releases the Rate Statement regarding its recent decision on short-term interest rates as well.

Let's take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture on the daily time frame. The golden trend line had been tested from the downside, and the price was rejected around the level of 0.7040. Currently, the price is trading below the golden trend line and if there is no surprising interest rate hike, then the next technical support is seen at the level of 0.6969. In case of an unexpected rate hike, the technical resistance at the level of 0.7090 will be tested and possibly violated.