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Trading plan for 23/05/2017:
The terrorist attack in Britain set the financial markets to fly-to-safety mode, so Japanese Yen and Gold are now in demand. The price of EUR/USD did not change much overnight, but the Dollar remains weak with new scandal revelations in Washington.
On Tuesday 23rd of May, the event calendar is quite busy with important economic releases, so market participants will pay attention to Flash Services, Manufacturing and Composite date from across the Eurozone, Ifo Business Climate data from Germany, Wholesale Sales data from Canada and New Home Sales data and Flash Manufacturing and Composite PMI from the US.
EUR/USD analysis for 23/05/2017:
The bunch of Flash PMI data from across the Eurozone is scheduled for release between 07.00am and 08.00am GMT. Market participants do not expect any big changes in PMI's, so most of the data should remain unchanged. The Ifo data, however, is expected to increase again. The Ifo Business Climate is expected to increase from 112.9 to 113.1 points and Ifo Expectations data are expected to increase from 105.2 to 105.4 points. In conclusion, moderate economic growth doesn't look set to accelerate, but any loss of momentum will probably be minimal.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market keeps making marginal higher highs just below the 1.1300 level, but the momentum is clearly in divergence with the price. The most important intraday level for bears is now the technical support at the level of 1.1212 because any violation of this level would immediately lead to the test of the next support at the level of 1.1170. Moreover, if at the end of the day the candlestick pattern on the daily time frame is any of the reversal patterns (doji, black cloud cover etc). then this would be the first sign of a possible deeper correction or even a reversal in this market.
USD/CAD analysis for 23/05/2017:
The Wholesale Sales data from Canada are scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT and market participants expect a 1.1% increase in sales after a 0.2% drop a month ago. Wholesalers sell to industries and retailers in quantities far larger than most consumers are willing to purchase. Given that growth in Wholesale Trade usually precedes increases in retail trade and consumption, changes in Wholesale Sales can be used as an early indicator for the overall direction of the retail sector, consumption, and the economy.
Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The market has broken out below the 50% Fibo at the level of 1.3508 and now it is heading towards the next support at the level of 1.3444. The overall market conditions are oversold, but there is no visible bullish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator yet. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.3410.
Market snapshot: Another failure to make a new high
The bulls did manage to test the recent swing high at the level of 1.3047 again, but failed to break out above it. The price is still trading above the golden trend line, but the whole structure look more like an ending diagonal formation. This means, the price might violate the golden trend line any time soon and move towards the next techncial support at the level of 1.2828.
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