12.03.202607:51:21UTC+00French 10-Year Yield Hits January High

France’s 10-year OAT yield rose to 3.6%, its highest level since early January, as mounting tensions in the Middle East fueled inflation fears and reinforced expectations of additional interest rate hikes. Oil prices extended their rally, briefly surpassing $100 per barrel after Iran stepped up attacks on oil and transport infrastructure across the region. The International Energy Agency’s plan to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves offered only limited short-term relief, as the additional supply may take weeks or even months to reach the market. Money markets now fully price in a European Central Bank rate increase by July and assign an 85% probability to a second hike by December. This represents a sharp reversal from late February, before the outbreak of the Iran war, when traders saw roughly a 40% chance of an ECB rate cut before year-end.