12.03.202607:42:17UTC+00Euro Weakens to Fresh Three-Month Low

The euro extended its slide toward $1.15, touching its weakest level since November 24, as persistent uncertainty over the Middle East conflict bolstered the US dollar and amplified concerns about rising inflation in the euro area. Oil prices resumed their rally and briefly climbed above $100 per barrel after Iran escalated attacks on oil and transportation infrastructure across the region. At the same time, the International Energy Agency’s plan to release 400 million barrels from strategic oil reserves offered little immediate relief, as it could take weeks or even months for the additional supply to reach end buyers. Money markets are now fully pricing in a European Central Bank interest rate hike by July, and assign an 85% probability to a second increase by December. This represents a sharp reversal from late February—prior to the outbreak of the Iran war—when traders saw roughly a 40% chance that the ECB would cut rates before year-end.