14.04.202610:13:14UTC+00US Small Business Optimism Lowest in 11 Months

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US declined to 95.8 in March 2026, its lowest level since April 2025, down from 98.8 in February and below the consensus forecast of 98.6. The index has now fallen beneath its 52-year average of 98, reflecting a more cautious outlook among small firms.

“The dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike. Small business owners are having to absorb those higher input costs and pass them along to their customers,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.

The Uncertainty Index rose 4 points to 92, significantly above its historical average of 68, signaling heightened concern about the economic outlook. The share of firms reporting positive profit trends dropped by 11 points to a net -25%, while the net percentage of owners expecting better business conditions fell 7 points to a net 11%. This marks the third consecutive monthly decline and the weakest reading since October 2024.

On a more positive note, Dunkelberg highlighted the impact of recent tax measures: “The 20% Small Business Deduction and other supportive small business tax provisions in the Working Families Tax Cut Act have had many positives for small business owners.”