30.04.202605:20:31UTC+00Rupiah Set for Third Straight Monthly Drop

The Indonesian rupiah weakened beyond IDR 17,380 per dollar on Thursday, falling for a third straight session and trading near a record low. Sentiment was pressured by broad U.S. dollar strength after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but adopted a more hawkish tone in response to persistent inflationary pressures. At the same time, stalled U.S.–Iran negotiations intensified concerns over global oil supplies, stoking renewed inflation fears.

On the domestic front, April CPI data due next week will be closely watched for signs of how higher non-subsidized fuel prices are feeding into inflation. March trade figures will also draw attention after a surge in imports narrowed February’s trade surplus, underscoring mounting external headwinds. These concerns have been compounded by a decline in foreign exchange reserves, although Bank Indonesia maintains that the March level of USD 148 billion remains sufficient to buffer external shocks.

For the month, the rupiah is on track to lose about 2.2%, marking a third consecutive monthly decline amid rising fiscal pressures, including shrinking emergency funds and postponed debt repayments.