03.06.202609:33:09UTC+00Treasury Yields March Higher as Rising Oil Prices Weigh on Inflation

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note climbed to 4.48% on Wednesday as escalating tensions in the Middle East drove oil prices higher for a third straight session, intensifying worries about renewed inflationary pressures. The US and Iran carried out additional military strikes, further undermining an already fragile ceasefire.

At the same time, US President Trump proposed a new tariff of at least 10% on imports of goods allegedly produced using forced labor from 60 trading partners, including China, the EU, and Japan. Investors are also looking ahead to key economic data releases, notably the ADP employment report and the ISM Services PMI, which will offer fresh clues about the strength of the US economy and help shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps.

On Tuesday, JOLTS data showed that job openings in April rose to their highest level since November 2024, underscoring the continued resilience of the labor market. Futures markets currently imply nearly a 60% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike by December.