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Heating oil futures for delivery in New York Harbor fell below $3.15 per gallon in late June, trading near their lowest level since early March, as signs emerged that oil exports from the Middle East are gradually resuming. Satellite data indicated that loaded tankers are once again transiting the Strait of Hormuz, after a memorandum of understanding and improved diplomatic dialogue between the US and Iran prompted both sides to ease their blockade.
At the same time, the US remained on course to lift sanctions on Iran, a move expected to unlock additional energy supply for Western refiners and dollar-based buyers. Unlike crude oil benchmarks, however, heating oil futures have stayed above their pre-war levels from late February.
Refining capacity for distillates has been particularly constrained, as European and Asian refiners grapple with depleted feedstock inventories, highlighted by shortages of jet fuel. Moreover, output from denser crude grades in the Persian Gulf—typically yielding higher volumes of diesel—has not fully recovered, as local refineries continue to face disruptions from recent attacks.