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US gasoline futures climbed above $3.48 per gallon, approaching their highest level since late May, as the escalating US–Iran confrontation spread to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and heightened fears of further energy supply disruptions. Heading into a second straight week of tensions, a new front opened in the Red Sea after President Donald Trump warned that Iran would be held responsible for any additional attacks, following claims by Iran-backed Houthi rebels that they had struck two Saudi oil tankers. In response, more tankers have been avoiding the Bab el-Mandeb route, increasing the risk of renewed interruptions along this critical global shipping chokepoint.
Supply concerns were compounded by earlier Ukrainian strikes on 24 of Russia’s 34 largest oil refineries and by US refineries operating at 96.1% of capacity, tightening the outlook for refined products. Even so, fuel availability in Russia has shown signs of stabilizing as Ukraine has shifted its focus from major refineries to maritime targets.
