23.01.201811:07 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Trading plan for 23/01/2018

Neither the Bank of Japan's decision nor the previous announcement of the end of the government shutdown in the US failed to break the currency market out of the sluggishness. Only AUD dropped significantly, which may be justified by declines in iron ore prices. The stock market is green, oil reflects on improving the outlook for global recovery.

On Tuesday 23rd of January, the event calendar is light in important news releases, but the market participants should keep an eye on Public Sector Net Borrowing data from the UK, ZEW Economic Sentiment data from Germany and Eurozone and Consumer Confidence data from the Eurozone.

USD/JPY analysis for 23/01/2018:

Overnight. the Bank of Japan left the policy parameters unchanged as expected. The market first focused on the passage in which it was written that "inflation expectations remain more or less unchanged", while previously they continued to "weaken". However, BoJ added that the price risks prevail on the negative side. What's more, BoJ did not raise inflation forecasts despite global trends and increases in oil prices - this is a dovish element of the statement. At the press conference, the president of BoJ Kuroda said that inflation in Japan is much lower than in Europe and the US, and there is no reason to change politics into less accommodative policy.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. In the initial reaction, USD/JPY slipped 35 pips to 110.55 but then bounced back to 111.00. Currently, the price is trading around the level of 110.70, which means it got back to the middle of the consolidation zone. Inability to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 111.48 suggest another leg down towards the level of 110.19. Weak momentum supports the bias.

Market Snapshot: DAX at new highs

The price of German DAX index has opened at the new high at the level of 13,586. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 13,515 and it might be reached quickly due to the growing bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator.

Market Snapshot: GBP/USD hits the 161% Fibo

The price of GBP/USD has hit the level of 1.4003 which is just above the 161% Fibo at the level of 1.3964. Currently, the price is testing the nearest technical support at the level of 1.3944 in overbought market conditions. Moreover, the growing bearish divergence indicates another corrective wave down towards the level of 1.3856 if the support will not hold.