03.12.201907:28 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Close to an inflection point in financial markets?

Long-term review

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Good morning all,

This is one of the dozen of charts that pass under my eyes every day: it's not more relevant than many others, simply it happened that I watched it yesterday. It represents the deviation between world GDP growth rate and the valuation of the MSCI ACWI index, that is tracking risk markets globally. Yesterday as well, I saw some numbers about the struggling German automobile and manufacturing industry, with the only BMW laying off 10.000 people during last months (sorry for not being accurate about how many), 1.700 of them being in some kind of the management role. I already talked yesterday about exports from South Korea dropping for 12 months in a row.

These are all signals, in my opinion, of the ailing global economy that is not rigorously tracked by equity indexes around the world: 25% growth rate per year is not a sustainable number in the long term.

Yesterday, we had what should have been considered in the past a very normal day, with DJ30 retreating a 0.96% and Nasdaq a 1.12%: no worrying sign yet. And, remember, eventual tops are a process, not a point.

But the interesting thing yesterday has been the recovered correlation between equities and USD movement. Actually, when the greenback started to drop, breaking ST trendline against the EUR or the AUD - for example - that's when stocks dropped.

And yes, that's it, the USD clearly broke some trendlines, not majors, but - hey - this is still the news these days.

Time to be net short equities and USD are coming?

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