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In January, the price moved upward and reached the level of 1.2539 with the target of 161.8% Fibonacci level at 1.2425 (yellow dotted line). In February, there is already a downward movement.
Trend analysis (Figure 1)
In March, the market is moving downward that should reach the support line at 1.2034 (white solid line). A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price goes next.
Fig. 1 (monthly chart).
Indicator analysis on the monthly schedule (Figure 2).
The system of ADX indicators(Figure 2).
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved down. In this case, the trend should be determined from the indicators of the oscillator type.
Stochastic indicator (period 5/3/8) on the monthly chart gives an upward trend (Fig. 2).
The system of RSI indicators (Figure 2).
When working with the daily chart, the following periods are used in the RSI indicator system: 21 (brown), 8 (blue), 13 (yellow), 5 (red).
At the last day's closed candle.
The property calculation of the RSI indicator (5) gives a downward trend.
The property calculation of the RSI indicator (8) gives a downward trend.
The bottom line: the RSI indicator system gives a downward trend.
The property calculation of the CCI indicator gives a downward trend.
The bottom line: the CCI indicator system gives a downward trend.
The result of the indicator analysis: the price will have a downward trend.
Calculation of the first shadow of the month (the first week) on a monthly chart.
Middle lines EMA 1/5/8 - the upper signal.
The indicator "three lines" (the direction of the lines of indicators CCI (5), RSI (5), stochastics with a period of 3/3/4) is a neutral signal.
Calculation of the RSI indicator system for the first tail is the bottom signal.
The bottom line: On the technical analysis for month of March, the monthly candlestick calculation showed that the price movement in the first week of March will have a downward trend, but finally, a one-week schedule will answer this question definitively.
Calculation of the second shadow of the month (last week) on the monthly schedule.
The calculation for the MACD linear part - gave an upward trend (100 points up).
Calculation of the MACD histogram - gave an upward trend (100 points up).
The bottom line: On the technical analysis showed the calculation of the last week of the month, the price will have an upward trend, but finally, the weekly schedule will answer this question.
Fig. 2 (monthly chart).
Complex analysis:
- indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - down;
- volumes - upwards;
- candle analysis - down;
- trend analysis - down;
- Bollinger lines - up;
Conclusion on the complex analysis is most likely the bottom work.
The total result of the calculation of the EUR / USD currency pair candle on a monthly chart: the price is likely to have a downward trend with the presence of the first upper shadow (the first week of the month - the upper) of the monthly black candle and the presence of the second lower shadow (last week is white).
The first lower target is 1.2134 (support line).
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