10.05.201901:05 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: The yen will rise while the world is facing a trade war

The yen is rapidly going up in the escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China. The currency has already updated a 3-month high against the dollar, as investors choose a safe haven, fearing that the friction between the two largest economies in the world may escalate. Two days of trade negotiations will begin in Washington on Thursday, and traders are concerned about whether the Chinese and American negotiators will be able to save the deal in order to prevent further tariff increases.

In general, fluctuations in foreign exchange markets, despite the new attack in the trade war, were rather muffled, but the yen's jump, which is in demand during times of political instability, suggests that investors are beginning to lose their nerves. The main "victims" of rising tensions were the Australian and US dollars, as well as the offshore Chinese yuan. At the same time, the prospects are bleak. The parties are unlikely to agree on a trade deal for these two days and, most likely, the United States will impose tariffs on Friday. It is worth noting that, unlike previous episodes of escalation, when the dollar benefited, the current threat to raise tariffs on Chinese imports prompted market strategists to focus on the devastating impact on Washington.

Prospects for the conflict's escalation led to a rise in the yen, which will continue in the coming days. The currency gained 0.3 percent against the dollar, to 109,640 yen, rising by more than 1 percent this month. According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, traders have further increased net long dollar rates, including against the yen. D. Trump said that China "broke the deal" reached at the talks and vowed to introduce new tariffs if Beijing "does not stop deceiving US representatives".