04.06.201909:49 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Wave analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for June 3. Inflation in the EU might be disappointing; bears are prepared

EUR / USD

Just yesterday, I wrote that the current wave marking can be interpreted in a completely different way, and today it has been transformed. Now, at least on May 23, it is viewed as the completion of wave 3, and, accordingly, correction wave 4, within which three waves are already clearly visible, and has begun its construction. If the current wave counting is correct, then near the levels of 50.0% and 61.8%, the formation of the upward wave may be completed. The pair will move to the phase of the construction of wave 5 of the downward trend segment. The news background, which has recently been providing serious support to the euro may change to the opposite in the coming days. There are serious reasons to expect a slowdown in global economic growth, which will also affect the European Union. The latest euro rise was mainly due to weak US economic data, but don't forget, that the EU itself cannot boast of strong statistics. Thus, I believe that the euro news support will be enough just to build a correctional wave 4.

Purchase goals:

1.1278 - 50.0% Fibonacci

1.1317 - 61.8% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.1106 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The euro / dollar pair remains within the downward trend, but it has proceeded to build a correction wave. In general, purchases are risky now, as wave 4 can end at any time. I recommend maintaining open purchases with targets at 1.1278 and 1.1317, which equates to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci. An unsuccessful attempt to break through one of these marks or the MACD signal is down - and I recommend closing the purchases.

GBP / USD

On June 3, the GBP / USD pair gained about 30 basis points, and the wave pattern still allows for several scenarios at once. For example, the minimum of May 31 may consider at least the 5-wave structure of waves within wave c. If this is the case, then from current positions, the tool may continue to increase within the new upward trend. However, the news background is not in favor of the pound, as there are too many political problems and problems with Brexit in Britain right now. Thus, from a wave point of view, the pair may be ready for a raise, but without news support, the foreign exchange market will not start to buy the British pound. In this case, I recommend re-buying the US dollar, if the markets again return to sales of the instrument and a successful attempt to break through the Fibonacci level of 200.0% will be executed.

Sales targets:

1.2554 - 200.0% Fibonacci

1.2360 - 261.8% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.3175 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern of the pound / dollar instrument implies a continuation of the instrument decline within the framework of the supposed wave c. Thus, now I recommend waiting for a breakout level of 200.0% and selling the pound with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.2360 and 1.2176, which corresponds to 261.8% and 323.6% in Fibonacci. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 200.0% mark could lead to the construction of an upward trend, but without news support, this option is unlikely.