11.06.201900:35 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: The risk returns to Forex, the ECB says one thing, and is going to do another

The Mexican peso avoided a collapse and even rose by more than 2% at the beginning of the week after the US and Mexico concluded a migration agreement to prevent a new tariff war. The agreement supports the restoration of risk appetite on the part of investors, which had a positive effect on the dollar and lowered the value of the yen. Investors have been actively buying the yen in recent weeks, after US President Donald Trump threatened Mexico with tariffs, but is now moving away from the safe haven.

On Monday, the dollar began to recover, which includes the reason that investors realized that their assessment of the likelihood of the Fed lowering interest rates was too high. The dollar index rose 0.3% to 96.824 points. In relation to the euro, the currency also went up by 0.3%, to $1.1304, while the single currency was under the pressure of ECB officials, who are ready to lower rates in the event of a weaker economic growth. In turn, the Mexican peso grew by more than 2%, to 19.2275 pesos per dollar, after the signing of the migration agreement. However, despite the fact that the demand for risky assets is expected to increase at the beginning of the week, one should be careful about the stability of risk appetite recovery, at any moment Trump may start other trade conflicts.

The yen systematically surrenders previously captured heights. The Japanese currency lost 0.4%, dropping to 108.65 yen to the dollar after, although it remains 3.3% stronger than its April levels. Positive, growing against the background of the agreement between the US and Mexico, is likely to spread to the trade dispute with China, perhaps the market will see some progress in this direction. The euro pulled back from recent highs reached on Friday after the ECB meeting, which investors viewed as more aggressive than expected. The ECB did without hints at lowering rates due to worsening economic prospects, but instead said that rates would remain "at their current levels" until mid-2020. But on Sunday, two sources immediately said that the regulator could again lower the ECB interest rate if economic growth weakens, because a strong euro harms the bloc.