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Analysts forecast for USD/JPY at the end of this year was the most accurate since 2006, according to Bloomberg. The success of the forecasters is due to the fact that the annual trading range in this currency pair has become the narrowest in the history of observations.
At the beginning of 2019, a consensus assessment of analysts surveyed by the agency suggested that the USD/JPY rate would be 108 yen per dollar at the end of December.
Despite three Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the yen has now strengthened against the greenback by only 1%.
This year, the USD/JPY currency pair was trading in the band of 104.46–112.40 - the narrowest trading range in history.
The trade war between the US and China, as well as concerns about a slowdown in the global economy, stimulated the demand for the yen. However, seasonal factors and the Japanese investors' steady demand for foreign assets did not allow JPY to firmly strengthen.
Moreover, the range of opinions on what to expect from the Japanese currency next year is quite wide. The most bullish forecast implies strengthening to 96 yen per dollar, and the most bearish forecast - weakening to 116.
In particular, Citigroup experts note that the USD/JPY rate has shown a downward trend since 2015. They expect this trend to continue in 2020.
"The difference in yields between the US and Japan already indicates a return of the USD/JPY rate to 100 yen per dollar or even lower," they said.
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