03.01.202312:39 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for January 3, 2023

Crypto Industry News:

Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva shared the IMF's predictions for the US, EU, China and the global economy in an interview with CBS aired Sunday.

"Here's what we'll see in 2023. It's going to be a tough year for the global economy, tougher than the one we're leaving behind. Why? Because all three major economies, US, EU, China, are slowing down at the same time," she said. They are the most resilient. The US can avoid recession. We see that the labor market remains quite strong. However, this is moderately good, because if the labor market is very strong, the Fed may have to keep interest rates higher for longer to bring inflation down," she continued head of the IMF.

As she noted, "The EU has been very badly affected by the war in Ukraine. (...) The economy of the European Union will be in recession. China will slow down even more this year."

"Next year will be difficult for China. And this translates into negative trends around the world," she added.

She warned that "when we look at emerging markets in developing economies, the picture is even worse."

"- Why? Because, to make matters worse, they are hit by high interest rates and the appreciation of the dollar. For these economies (...) it is a real devastation" - she explained.

Referring to China, Georgieva noticed that the restrictions of the "zero covid" policy are being loosened in the Middle Kingdom.

"For the first time in 40 years, China's economic growth in 2022 is likely to be equal to or lower than global growth. This has never happened before," she added.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair had keeps trading below 100 MA on the H4 time frame chart and is trading below the intraday technical resistance seen at $17,057. The volatility is still limited despite the recent spike down, so the trading rage is seen between the levels of $16,268 - $17,057. Any breakout below the range low would extend the corrective cycle towards the level of $15,984 (November 28th low). On the other hand, a breakout above the level of $17,057 is needed in order to extend the rally towards the key short-term technical resistance seen at $18,360.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $17,051

WR2 - $16,841

WR1 - $16,758

Weekly Pivot - $16,662

WS1 - $16,548

WS2 - $16,422

WS3 - $16,213

Trading Outlook:

The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames continues without any indication of a possible trend termination or reversal. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Bitcoin for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. Moreover, there is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $15,600, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. The new yearly low was made at $15,555 and if this level is violated, then the next long-term target for bulls is seen at $13,712. On the other hand, the gamechanging level for bulls is located at $25,367 and it must be clearly violated for a valid breakout in the longer term.