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Gold dropped a little after registering a new high of 1,865 yesterday. Technically, after its strong rally, a retreat was natural. Fundamentally, the US data could be decisive today and tomorrow. Better than expected economic figures should lift the greenback and punish the yellow metal.
XAU/USD retreated a little but if the ADP Non-Farm Unemployment Change disappoints later today, the price of gold could turn to the upside. Also, the Unemployment Claims could climb from 225K to 230K, this could be bad for the greenback and could lift the XAU/USD. Tomorrow, the NFP, Average Hourly Earnings, ISM Services PMI, and the Unemployment Rate could have a major impact on gold and could bring strong moves.
XAU/USD developed a flag pattern, a down channel formation which is seen as an upside continuation pattern. The weekly R1 (1,839) and the uptrend line represent support levels (downside obstacles).
Only a valid breakdown below the uptrend line invalidated the bullish scenario and opens the door for more declines.
Testing and retesting the R1 and the uptrend line, false breakdowns could announce a new bullish momentum. This could represent the first bullish scenario. A valid breakout above the immediate downtrend line could announce an upside continuation and is seen as a long opportunity.
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