08.08.202212:25 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Strengthening dollar eased recession fears

The US jobs report—the week's most important report, was published on Friday. Economists were expecting an additional 258,000 new jobs added last month. A report from the Department of Labor showed that the US economy experienced solid job growth last month, with more than 500,000 jobs created in July. Friday's extraordinarily strong numbers ease fears that the United States will enter a recession. While this upbeat report bodes well for economic growth, it certainly doesn't address inflation.

This changes the mood of market participants, focused on the last two GDP reports. On July 28, the government published a preliminary estimate of GDP for the second quarter. The report showed that in the second quarter of 2022, year-on-year GDP declined by 0.9%. Earlier this year, the BEA reported a 1.6% decline in first-quarter GDP. We must not forget that an economic recession for two quarters in a row is the generally accepted definition of a recession.

Fear of a disappointing jobs report put pressure on US Treasury yields, and the dollar's decline was reversed. The dollar added 0.8%, which corresponds to Friday's decline.

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said Friday's labor market report is not good news for gold bulls, and next week's CPI report will be the next key test.

According to Bart Melek, head of commodities strategy at TD Securities, gold has recently rallied on the thought that the Fed will move from hawkish to dovish sentiment. But employment data shows that the US economy is strong, and this may prompt the Fed to act more aggressively, which is not good for gold.

The next catalyst for gold prices will be the published report on the US consumer price index this week.

Moreover, growing geopolitical concerns in Ukraine and China's reaction to Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan may also affect gold prices.