25.08.202204:57 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 25, 2022

Yesterday's general market background did not contribute to the euro's growth, but the single currency also did not fall, as did the currencies of other leading countries. The yield on 5-year US government bonds increased from 3.17% to 3.23%, the S&P 500 stock index added 0.29%. Obviously, investors are more wary of the conference of bankers in Jackson Hole, in contrast to previous years of Jerome Powell's tenure as chairman of the Federal Reserve, now his position on tightening monetary policy amid a global economic decline is far from clear. It is one thing to declare the absence of a recession as a comment on the output of a disappointing GDP, it is another thing to go against the general assessment of the current state of affairs in the world.

This morning the euro is growing, the correction continues. The price will probably try to overcome the resistance of 1.0020 once again. But in the end, we expect the price to drop to the level of 0.9850, since the current convergence pattern (turquoise line) looks weak on the daily chart, with a steep, rarely seen angle.

The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator went up sharply on the four-hour chart. This is a sign that the price will overcome the first resistance at 1.0020 and work out the MACD line, around 1.0052. Consolidating above the MACD line may lead to a more significant increase to the target level of 1.0150, which the MACD line has already approached on the daily chart. In this case, of course, the daily scale convergence will work. It will be more difficult to turn the price back into a medium-term decline. But we are waiting for the price to reverse no higher than 1.0052 - this is the main scenario.