23.01.202313:17 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Gold has room to grow, but sentiment is starting to change

The latest weekly gold survey shows that optimistic analysts have a slight advantage; however, most analysts have stepped aside as they believe the precious metal looks slightly overvalued.

At the same time, the survey shows that retail investors are optimistic about gold prices for the current week; however, the low level of participation in online surveys does not add confidence to the positive market sentiment.

Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, said it's hard to ignore gold's bullish momentum. He explained that the growing headwinds to the U.S. economy are creating a lot of uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which benefits gold.

"I think this rally has some room to move higher," he said. "The whisper number is $2,000 and that is when you will see investors take profits on their long positions. As long as gold can stay above $1,920, I think it has a shot of going higher."

On the other hand, Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, said he expects gold to consolidate at current levels before resuming gains.

"While the longer-term trend remains positive for Gold, technically, it has had a good run lately and is looking a bit tired and due for a brief pause," he said.

Last week, 18 Wall Street analysts took part in the survey. Among the participants, eight analysts, or 44%, were optimistic about gold for the current week. At the same time, four analysts, or 22%, are bearish, and six analysts, or 33%, believe prices are trading sideways.

Meanwhile, 783 votes were cast in online polls. Of these, 500 respondents, or 64%, expect prices to rise this week. Another 169 voters, or 22%, said the price would come down, while 114 voters, or 15%, were neutral in the near term.

Participation in online surveys dropped to a low last week.

The overall bullish mood in the market is due to the fact that the gold market has been demonstrating growth for the fifth consecutive week.

Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, said he also expects the price of gold to fall this week, but sees any drop in the market as a long-term buying opportunity.

"Gold needs a break after the strong run-up and it could be sparked by commentary around the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting. Given current expectations, there is more potential for disappointment than a pleasant surprise. After a brief and shallow pullback, gold will be strong again; nothing has changed the story for the year," he said.

For many analysts, the U.S. dollar remains the biggest risk for gold. The U.S. dollar index ended last week relatively unchanged.

Analysts believe its 10.5% drop from September's 20-year high is a big reason why gold would rise 5% in the first month of 2023.

However, some analysts see the dollar's sell-off as somewhat exaggerated and suggest that the greenback may find some support ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting next month. The central bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, slower than previously expected.

According to Darin Newsome, senior technical analyst at Barchart.com, Gold is short-term overbought and the U.S. dollar index is short-term oversold.