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In a situation of remaining high inflation, political and economic uncertainties, and amid expectations of soft decisions from the Fed, purchases of defensive assets—yen, government bonds, and gold—are again very relevant.
Its quotes are very sensitive to the decisions of the world's largest central banks (primarily the Fed) on interest rates, and if investors consider today's Fed decision soft, and if the accompanying comments of its leaders and Powell's statements contain hints of the need to pause rate hikes, then we should expect a resumption of the gold rally towards last year's highs and $2070.00 per troy ounce. At the same time, new absolute records in the future are not ruled out.
The breakdown of the short-term resistance level 1953.00 (200 EMA on a 15-minute chart) and the local resistance level 1958.00 (last month's high) may become a signal to increase long positions.
Alternatively, XAU/USD will resume its decline. The first signal to open short positions will be a breakdown of the important short-term support level 1924.00 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart). However, the downward correction will most likely be limited by the support levels 1880.00 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart), 1870.00 (50 EMA on the daily chart), near which pending orders to buy may be placed.
Only a breakdown of the key support levels 1825.00 (144 EMA on the daily chart), 1817.00 (200 EMA on the daily chart), 1800.00 may increase the risks of breaking gold's long-term bullish trend, sending XAU/USD inside the downward channel on the weekly chart of the pair (its lower border is near the 1400.00 mark).
Support levels: 1937.00 1924.00 1900.00 1896.00 1880.00 1870.00 1843.00 1825.00 1817.00 1800.00 1766.00 1722.00 1700.00
Resistance levels: 1953.00, 1958.00, 2000.00, 2009.00, 2070.00
Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 1923.00. Stop-Loss 1945.00. Take-Profit 1900.00, 1896.00, 1880.00, 1870.00, 1843.00, 1825.00, 1817.00, 1800.00, 1766.00, 1722.00, 1700.00
Buy Stop 1945.00. Stop-Loss 1923.00. Take-Profit 1953.00, 1958.00, 2000.00, 2009.00, 2070.00
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