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The market reacted to the outcomes of the May RBA meeting with a sharp strengthening of the Australian dollar and a surge in the AUD/USD pair upward, which broke through the key resistance level of 0.6700, reaching an intraday high of 0.6716. However, the price failed to overcome the strong resistance level of 0.6785 (200 EMA on the daily chart), and subsequently, AUD/USD declined.
Today, AUD/USD continued to rise after yesterday's weak macro data from the U.S.
As of writing, it was trading near the level of 0.6620, slightly down from today's high of 0.6630, also bouncing off the resistance level 0.6630 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart).
If the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll does not disappoint investors (publication at 12:30 GMT), it is reasonable to expect the strengthening of the USD and the decline of AUD/USD.
The fastest signal, in this case, to open short positions would be the breakdown of the local support level 0.6600, and the confirming signal would be the breakdown of the support level 0.6557 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart), which may lead to a resumption of the downward trend in AUD/USD.
In an alternative scenario, the breakthrough of the resistance level 0.6650 (50 EMA on the daily chart) will pave the way for further growth towards key resistance levels 0.6720 (144 EMA and the upper line of the downward channel on the daily chart), 0.6755 (200 EMA on the daily chart), separating the medium-term bearish market from the bullish one.
However, the breakthrough of the local resistance level 0.6815 may signal buyers to provoke further growth in AUD/USD towards key resistance levels 0.7000 (144 EMA on the weekly chart), 0.7070 (200 EMA on the weekly chart). Breaking through these levels will lead the pair into the zone of the long-term bullish market.
Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6557, 0.6500, 0.6455, 0.6390, 0.6285, 0.6200, 0.6170
Resistance levels: 0.6630, 0.6650, 0.6700, 0.6720, 0.6755, 0.6785, 0.6800, 0.6815, 0.6900, 0.6920, 0.7000, 0.7040, 0.7100
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