13.07.202308:55 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on July 13

Before the release of the latest US inflation data, no one expected the consumer price growth to slow down from 4.0% to 3.2%, as most believe that the limit will be 3.1%. But reality surpassed all expectations, making everyone think that the Fed will go through with only one interest rate hike instead of the two promised by the bank earlier. Talks even emerged that there might not be any hike at all and, perhaps by the end of the year, the interest rate level in the US will start to decrease. Dollar immediately began to depreciate after this news.

A rebound or a minor correction will happen only if market players see a good reason to buy dollar. An example of this could be the recent data on industrial production in the UK, which accelerated its decline from -1.6% to -2.3%. However, this data remains better than the forecast of -2.4%, so it only led to a slight halt.

The upcoming similar report from the eurozone may exhibit the same results, especially since forecasts say the 0.2% growth will be replaced by a -1.4% decline. And even if data surpasses expectations, it will be enough to trigger a local correction.

EUR/USD showed a rather intensive upward movement, hitting the local high of the medium-term trend. It traded above 1.1150, but since the pair appears to be overbought, a pullback will likely occur soon.

GBP/USD reached the resistance level of 1.3000, where the volume of long positions gradually decreased. Given the signal about the pair being overbought, a pullback will likely occur soon.