16.11.202314:10 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: China's gold reserves are 10 times higher than stated

China is actively engaged in gold trading, consistently replenishing its gold reserves on a monthly basis over the past 12 months. However, according to Dominic Frisby, Founder of FlyingFrisby.com, official figures are far from reflecting the actual volumes of China's gold purchases. According to the World Gold Council, the latest data shows that China's central bank purchased about 23 tons of gold in October, increasing the total reserves to 2,215 tons.

Overall, in recent times, the Chinese government has become one of the largest holders of gold reserves. The current year is likely to be another record year for gold purchases by central banks. Despite China already being a leader in gold accumulation, the actual figures are much more significant. In an interview with Michelle Makori at the New Orleans Investment Conference, Frisby emphasized that, based on his extensive research, China's gold reserves are probably ten times more than reported, and the math is straightforward. News reports softly convey that China is exceptionally ambitious.

China is the world's largest producer and importer of gold, with the country's motto, as per Frisby, being "We must not shine too brightly." In this century alone, China has mined approximately 7,000 tons of gold. More than 50% of China's gold production belongs to the state, but China does not export its mined gold. Thus, all the gold that China has mined remains in China.

Regarding imports, it is unknown how much gold China brought in through Switzerland, Dubai, or London. Nevertheless, logical reasoning can be applied. For example, a significant portion of gold entering China goes through the Shanghai Gold Exchange. According to data, 22,000 tons of gold were withdrawn from the Shanghai Gold Exchange in this century. Accordingly, 22,000 tons, plus 7,000 tons—totaling 29,000 tons, and an additional 4,000 tons were already in China in 2000 and owned by the state.

Based on this, Frisby calculated that China owns at least 33,000 tons of gold, with probably half of it belonging to the state. According to him, 16,500 tons is twice as much as what America has.

In his opinion, if China turns to the U.S. and says they have twice as much gold as America, it would be equivalent to declaring war. And if China goes to war with the U.S., it will turn money into a weapon. Frisby also acknowledged that China could consider the possibility of a gold standard in the country, backing its currency with gold.

Frisby believes that, next year, gold prices will exceed $3,000, and Bitcoin will double and reach $100,000.

At the end of October, the gold market surpassed the $2,000 per ounce level.

Bitcoin approached $38,000.

Frisby looks optimistically at both assets for the next year, noting that gold's momentum is growing, and the precious metal could reach $2,700 and possibly even surpass $3,000.

As for Bitcoin, amid speculative approval frenzy of a spot Bitcoin ETF, Bitcoin may retest its previous historical highs of $69,000 and then grow to $100,000. If Bitcoin reaches new highs above $70,000 and gold reaches new highs above $2,100, there will be no resistance. And if there is enough institutional money and speculative frenzy, Bitcoin can easily rise to $100,000.