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On Friday, the euro closed the day up 77 pips, with the upper shadow reaching the April 2015 low, while also covering the November 2015 low. Although this resistance appears strong, the price managed to close above the MACD line, which creates the potential risk for further growth toward 1.0598.
Conversely, the Marlin oscillator has entered the growth territory significantly, outpacing the price movement. This suggests that even if the price consolidates above the indicator line, it could eventually prove to be a false breakout.
Today, Germany's IFO Business Climate Index for January is forecasted to rise from 84.7 to 84.9, while new home sales in the U.S. for December are expected to increase from 664K y/y to 669K y/y. As a result, the price may remain within the range of 1.0458 to 1.0520 throughout the day.
On the H4 chart, a small gap is visible at the market's opening. Additionally, a divergence has formed, and the Marlin oscillator is moving toward negative territory. However, for a successful downward push, the gap must be closed. This adds to the likelihood of sideways price movement. Another contributing factor is the anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday, January 29.
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