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On Friday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0411, followed by a decline toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.0288. The rebound from this level suggests a possible reversal in favor of the euro, with a potential upward correction toward several nearby resistance levels.
However, a firm consolidation below 1.0288 would increase the likelihood of further euro depreciation, targeting 1.0213 (0.0% Fibonacci level) and resuming the broader bearish trend.
On the hourly chart, the wave structure has become less clear: The latest downward wave broke the previous low. The latest upward wave failed to surpass the previous high. This suggests a shift to a bearish trend or the development of a complex sideways movement. Wave sizes are inconsistent, making it difficult to confirm a clear trend.
On Friday, the U.S. dollar strengthened amid a strong fundamental backdrop. The number of Nonfarm Payrolls in January was 143K (with expectations of 170-205K), the unemployment rate was 4.0% (with expectations of 4.1%), and wages increased by 0.5% (with forecasts of 0.3%). A little later, the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan was released, which amounted to 67.8 against expectations of 71.1. Thus, two out of four reports at once could be recorded as successful. However, the Nonfarm Payrolls report is not that simple. The value for January was indeed lower than expected, but the value for December was increased by 51K. Thus, three out of four reports supported the bears and the dollar. There should be no questions about why the US currency is rising again.
On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD rallied toward the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0436 but failed to break it. Thus, a reversal was made in favor of the US currency, and the pair has a real chance of returning to the Fibo level of 161.8% – 1.0225. At the very least, the bulls will need a strong information background to overcome the 1.0436 level. No emerging divergences are visible on major indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
During the last reporting week, professional players opened 8,894 long and 904 short positions. The mood of the "Non-commercial" group remains "bearish", which suggests a further decline in the pair. The total number of long positions concentrated in the hands of speculators now stands at 162,000, and short positions at 221,000.
For 20 consecutive weeks, large traders have been reducing their euro holdings. This confirms a strong and prolonged bearish trend. Occasional bullish weeks occur, but they remain exceptions rather than a reversal pattern. The market has already priced in the Fed's expected monetary easing, leaving little incentive to sell the U.S. dollar further. Technical analysis also supports a continued bearish trend for EUR/USD. As a result, further downside for EUR/USD remains the most likely scenario.
Economic Calendar for the U.S. & Eurozone
Eurozone: ECB President Christine Lagarde Speech (02:00 UTC)
On February 10, the calendar of economic events contains only one entry. The influence of the information background on the market mood on Monday may be weak.
Sales of the pair were possible upon rebound from the 1.0411 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.0335–1.0346. This area has been practically worked out with a large margin. Today, sales are possible with a rebound from the 1.0335–1.0346 zone with targets of 1.0288 and 1.0213. Purchases can be considered near the level of 1.0288, the trend has changed back to "bearish."
The Fibonacci level grids are based on 1.0533–1.0213 on the hourly chart and 1.0603–1.1214 on the 4-hour chart.
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