11.02.202511:58 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Watch on February 11th? Fundamental Event Analysis for Beginners

Macroeconomic Report Analysis:

There are no scheduled macroeconomic events for Tuesday. However, there will be two speeches by central bank governors today. The euro and the pound continue to show bearish tendencies, but it is important to remember that on the daily timeframe, a correction is still in progress. On lower timeframes, this correction may appear as alternating trends. Therefore, the current decline in the European and British currencies does not necessarily indicate a prolonged downtrend.

Fundamental Event Analysis:

Among the fundamental events on Tuesday, the most notable are the speeches by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Fed Chair Jerome Powell. However, it is important to note that all three major central banks have recently held their policy meetings, meaning that the leaders' views on monetary policy are unlikely to have changed significantly.

The main focus will be on Powell's testimony before Congress, as he may face challenging questions that require direct responses. These unexpected remarks could trigger strong market movements if they provide new insights for traders and investors.

General Conclusions:

On the second trading day of the week, market movements could be unpredictable but are likely to remain weak for most of the day. The global trend remains bearish and the medium-term trend is also bearish. However, the correction phase is still ongoing.

The only factor that could significantly impact price action today is Jerome Powell's testimony. If he does not deliver any market-moving statements, then volatility may remain low throughout the day, and traders will need to rely exclusively on technical levels and signals.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal depends on the time required to form it (whether it is a bounce or a breakout of a level). The shorter the formation time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades at the same level result in false signals, then all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat (sideways market), a currency pair may generate multiple false signals or none at all. In such cases, it is best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trades should be opened during the European session and manually closed by the middle of the U.S. session to avoid overnight risks.
5. On the hourly timeframe, MACD signals should only be traded if there is sufficient volatility and a confirmed trend, verified by a trendline or trend channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5–20 pips apart), they should be treated as a support or resistance zone rather than separate levels.
7. After gaining 15-20 pips in the right direction, move Stop Loss to breakeven to minimize risk.

Key Chart Elements:

• Support & Resistance Levels – These are the targets for buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed near these zones.
• Red Lines – Trend channels or trendlines, indicating the current market trend and the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14,22,3) – Histogram & signal line, a secondary indicator that can also serve as a signal source.
• Major Economic Reports & Speeches (always found in the economic calendar) can strongly influence the currency pair's movement. During these events, it is recommended to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sudden price reversals against the prevailing trend.

Important Note for Beginner Traders:

Not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and effective money management is essential for long-term success in Forex trading.