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U.S. inflation data surpassed expectations. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 3.2% year-over-year (YoY) to 3.3% YoY, contrary to the forecasted decrease to 3.1% YoY. The headline CPI also increased, moving from 2.9% YoY to 3.0% YoY. The initial market reaction saw the U.S. dollar strengthen, but it later lost some ground, allowing the euro to close the day with a 20-pip gain. Market participants now anticipate no more than one rate cut before the end of the year.
The current situation is not favorable for the euro. Government bond yields have surged, oil prices have declined due to potential improvements in U.S.-Russia relations, and gold has stalled. Stock indices remain uncertain, as high interest rates primarily benefit the banking sector.
The euro has shown resilience and a strong desire to increase in value. Current momentum indicates an upward movement towards the first target of 1.0458. If the euro breaks above this level, it could pave the way for a target range of 1.0534 to 1.0575; however, sustained growth beyond this range remains uncertain.
The daily chart indicates that the price is consolidating above the balance line, while the Marlin oscillator is rising within the bullish zone.
On the four-hour timeframe, the price has faced significant resistance from indicator lines but ultimately leaned in favor of the bulls. It has now consolidated above these indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator has turned upward from the boundary that separates growth from decline. We anticipate further appreciation of the euro.
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