27.02.202507:32 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Pay Attention to on February 27? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Thursday's macroeconomic calendar is relatively light, but significant reports will be released today. Germany, the UK, and the Eurozone are set to publish minor economic reports, which are not expected to have a major market impact. However, the U.S. will release key data, including Q4 GDP (final estimate), durable goods orders, and jobless claims.

The jobless claims report is unlikely to attract much attention. The GDP report may show a figure similar to previous estimates, which would likely result in no significant market reaction. The most crucial report today will be durable goods orders, which is expected to show a strong reading.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among Thursday's fundamental events, speeches by Federal Reserve officials Barr, Barkin, and Bowman stand out. However, as we have mentioned repeatedly, concerns about monetary policy in the UK, Eurozone, and U.S. are relatively settled. The Bank of England remains under scrutiny, as the latest UK inflation report could influence its stance heading into 2025. However, BOE officials have not yet commented on this report, so there is no indication of a shift in their policy outlook. Meanwhile, the Fed is likely to cut rates fewer times than the originally planned two cuts in 2025.

General Conclusions:

On the second-to-last trading day of the week, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD may see increased volatility, potentially breaking out of their recent stable ranges. We believe that both the euro and the pound should have started declining last week. However, today's movements will largely depend on U.S. economic data.

While both currencies are still experiencing upward pressure, market participants currently prefer to buy, although the momentum is weak.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.