05.03.202513:37 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: AUD/USD: Analysis and Forecast

The AUD/USD pair has been rising for the third consecutive day, as the U.S. dollar remains under pressure for the third straight session amid growing concerns over a potential U.S. economic slowdown, driven by the impact of new tariffs imposed by Donald Trump on various countries.

Key Economic Data to Watch

Today, investors should focus on the ISM Services PMI and the ADP Employment Change report, both set for release later during the North American trading session.

The Australian dollar remains resilient following the release of key economic data. Australia's GDP grew by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, surpassing the 0.3% growth in Q3 and exceeding market expectations of 0.5%. On a year-over-year basis, Q4 GDP expanded by 1.3%, compared to 0.8% in the previous quarter.

Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Andrew Hauser, stated that global trade uncertainty has reached a 50-year high, warning that the uncertainty created by President Trump's tariffs could force businesses and households to delay planning and investments, ultimately weighing on economic growth.

Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, AUD/USD is attempting to break above the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA), signaling increasing short-term momentum. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, indicating that bullish momentum has yet to be fully confirmed.

On the other hand, the nearest support level for AUD/USD is at today's low of 0.6235. Below that, the next key support lies at the round level of 0.6200, followed by March's low. A break below these levels could tilt the probability back in favor of the bears.