06.03.202511:43 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Bitcoin and Ethereum regaining consciousness

Yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum gained between 3% and 5%, sparking discussions that the sharp correction observed in recent weeks may be nearing its end.

News that China has intensified its fiscal and monetary stimulus—promising to boost consumption and mitigate the impact of escalating trade tensions with the US—could support demand for risk assets. The increase in global liquidity, fueled by US fiscal measures, could spill over into various risky assets, including Bitcoin.

China is expected to increase fiscal stimulus by issuing 300 billion yuan in special treasury bonds to bolster consumption, along with monetary easing measures such as interest rate cuts and lower reserve requirements. Historically, large-scale stimulus policies and monetary easing have coincided with optimistic trends in cryptocurrency markets.

Even though cryptocurrencies are officially banned in China, the connection between China's stimulus policies and crypto markets lies in increased liquidity and risk appetite. When governments inject capital into the economy, some of it may flow into alternative markets like crypto, seeking higher returns. Lower interest rates also reduce the attractiveness of traditional investments, pushing investors to explore other opportunities.

However, it's important to note that this correlation is not direct. The crypto market is influenced by multiple factors, including global economic conditions, technological developments, and investor sentiment.

Trump's crypto conference on March 7 could be a key market driver

In the short term, the direction of the crypto market could be influenced by US President Donald Trump's statements at the upcoming crypto conference on March 7. Many market participants expect positive developments and clarity regarding the US reserve crypto fund that Trump plans to establish.

Investors are hopeful that Trump will specify his crypto strategy and possibly support legislative initiatives that favor the industry. Such moves could significantly boost investor confidence and attract new capital inflows.

However, skeptical voices remain. Some analysts believe Trump's statements may be populist—aimed at gaining attention rather than genuinely supporting the crypto market. They fear that a lack of a clear strategy or unrealistic promises could disappoint investors and trigger another market sell-off.

Technical outlook for Bitcoin

Currently, buyers are targeting a return to the $92,200 level, which opens the door to $94,000, followed by $96,400. The ultimate target is $98,000—a breakout above this level would confirm a return to the medium-term bull market. In case of a Bitcoin pullback, buyers are expected at $89,900. A drop below this level could accelerate a decline toward $87,700, with the final support zone at $85,600.

Technical outlook for Ethereum

A clear breakout above $2,313 would open the door to $2,395, with the ultimate target at $2,489. A move above this level would confirm a return to the medium-term bull market. In case of an Ethereum decline, buyers are expected at $2,223. A break below this level could push ETH toward $2,138, with the final support zone at $2,055.