05.05.202500:51 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: British Pound: Weekly Preview

Recent reviews for both instruments have become predictable and even somewhat dull. The entire set of factors capable of influencing market sentiment and instrument movement boils down to the President of the United States, Donald Trump. As a result, in every analysis, I am compelled to talk only about the U.S. president—even when he makes no statements, takes no action, and plays golf at his private golf club. We're living in unusual times when Trump playing golf carries more weight for the market than the Nonfarm Payrolls report.

The last news events the market reacted to were reports about the possible dismissal of Jerome Powell, followed the next day by news of his "pardon." That was when the euro and the British pound reached their latest peaks and rolled back downward. Since then, both instruments have traded weakly with low movement, and market activity has declined. So, the new week's news backdrop will depend again on Trump's decisions.

In the UK, I would highlight only one event: the Bank of England's meeting. The British central bank had been holding a pause for some time but now appears ready to initiate a new round of monetary policy easing. Inflation has slowed in recent months, so the time has come to cut the interest rate. However, the market seems to view this as a routine event. I certainly do not expect a sharp drop in demand for the pound. In recent months, the market has had reasons to reduce demand for the pound or increase demand for the dollar, but again, the news backdrop is often one-sidedly priced in.

Based on the above, the BoE meeting remains an important event, but I do not expect a strong market reaction. I also do not expect a sharp drop in the pound, which contradicts the updated wave structure. Once again, Trump's rhetoric will matter more than the BoE or FOMC meetings.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument is continuing to build a new bullish wave cycle. In the near term, the wave pattern will entirely depend on the position and actions of the U.S. President. This must be kept in mind at all times. Based purely on the wave count, I expected three corrective waves to form within wave 2. However, wave 2 has already ended and took the shape of a single wave. Wave 3 of the upward trend has begun, and its targets may extend to the 1.25 level. Reaching these targets will depend solely on Trump. A corrective wave may form in the short term, but further growth is expected.

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of GBP/USD has evolved. We are now dealing with a bullish, impulsive wave segment. Unfortunately, with Donald Trump, markets may face many more shocks and reversals contradicting wave structures and technical analysis. The assumed wave 2 is complete, as prices have broken through the peak of wave 1. Therefore, we should expect the formation of upward wave 3, with immediate targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. It would be ideal to see a corrective sub-wave 2 within wave 3—but for that to happen, the dollar must strengthen, and for that, someone has to buy it.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are hard to trade and often lead to revisions.
2. If you're uncertain about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. One can never be 100% certain of the market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.