05.05.202517:27 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/USD pair is regaining positive momentum at the start of the new week, rising toward the 1.1350 resistance level amid a weaker U.S. dollar.

However, it's important to note that the current technical picture calls for caution. Last week's decline below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart — for the first time since early April — served as a signal for the bears.

Oscillators on the daily chart remain in bullish territory.

And on the hourly charts, bullish momentum is building again, pointing to a potential recovery. However, confirmation of sustained buying is required to be confident that the recent corrective pullback from the 1.1575 level — the highest level seen since November 2021 — has exhausted itself.

As noted above, the nearest resistance is at the 1.1350 level. The next significant resistance before the psychological 1.1400 level is the 100 SMA on the 4-hour chart, currently located near the 1.1375 level. Sustained strength beyond this zone would allow EUR/USD to break through the intermediate barrier at 1.1425, after which the pair would aim to reclaim the psychological 1.1500 level. Momentum may carry the price higher in an attempt to challenge the multi-year high around 1.1575, reached in April 2021, en route to the next round number at 1.1600.

On the other hand, a break below 1.1300 and further decline beneath 1.1265 would confirm a bearish trend. This could accelerate the fall toward the 1.1200 round level and beyond.