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Today, the USD/CAD pair remains positive within a familiar range, without showing strong buying momentum.
The strengthening of the U.S. dollar following a two-day decline is attributed to the positive ISM Services PMI data. These figures support optimism regarding U.S. economic activity, though ongoing uncertainty around President Trump's trade policy keeps dollar bulls from placing aggressive bets.
Since the Canadian dollar is closely linked to commodities, attention should also be paid to oil prices, which are showing signs of recovery after a decline during yesterday's U.S. session. Expectations of a trade agreement between the U.S. and Canada are providing support to the Canadian dollar, thereby capping the upside for the USD/CAD pair. According to U.S. President Donald Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is seeking to finalize a trade deal during a visit to the White House this week.
Investors remain cautious, awaiting further signals on future Fed rate policy changes. Traders will be looking to the outcome of the two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting, the results of which are expected on Wednesday, for direction on the pair's movement.
For better trading opportunities today, it's advisable to focus on economic releases from both Canada and the U.S.
As for key risks, the recent U.S. macroeconomic data have already eased recession fears, thereby supporting the dollar and the USD/CAD pair. However, spot prices remain near their lowest levels since October 2024 and appear vulnerable to a continuation of the established downtrend.
From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD pair remains within a familiar range, showing no clear direction. Oscillators on the daily chart remain in negative territory and are far from oversold levels, which reinforces bearish sentiment and suggests that the overall path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair remains downward.
Nevertheless, for more confident positioning toward further losses, it would be prudent to wait for a confirmed break and hold below the 1.3800 level. A subsequent decline toward the yearly low could accelerate a drop to intermediate support at 1.3740, before testing levels below 1.3700.
On the other hand, the 1.3860 level is the nearest obstacle before 1.3900. A break of this resistance could trigger short covering and lift the USD/CAD pair toward the 1.3955 level. A sustained move above this region might then act as a short-term trigger for bulls.
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