07.05.202519:33 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the Japanese yen reached a new daily low, which contributed to the rise of the USD/JPY pair to nearly the 143.50 level. This increase is driven by positive global sentiment sparked by news of trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, which negatively affects traditional safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen.

However, there is a possibility that the Bank of Japan may revise its forecasts depending on the outcomes of trade talks between the U.S. and Japan. This could lead to an interest rate hike, especially amid rising inflation in Japan, which could support the Far Eastern currency.

Still, restrained demand for the U.S. dollar may limit the upward potential of the USD/JPY pair, as traders eagerly await the outcome of the two-day FOMC meeting on monetary policy, where the Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

From a technical perspective, the recent failure of the USD/JPY pair near the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart serves as a bearish signal. Moreover, oscillators on the daily, hourly, and 4-hour charts remain in negative territory, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair remains to the downside. Therefore, any upward movement can be viewed as a selling opportunity near the 143.55 level, which is capped by the psychological level of 144.00. Above this round level lies a supply zone in the 144.25–144.30 level. If this zone is breached, it could trigger a short-covering rally, pushing spot prices toward the psychological level of 145.00.

On the other hand, the 142.35 level, which marks the weekly low, now protects against immediate declines in USD/JPY ahead of the 142.00 round level. A convincing break below 142.00 would leave spot prices vulnerable to further decline toward the next support zone around 141.60, with potential for a move down to the 141.00 round level.