15.05.202506:21 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Pay Attention to on May 15? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

A relatively large number of macroeconomic events are scheduled for Thursday, but very few are likely to trigger a strong market reaction. The second estimate of Q1 GDP and industrial production reports will be released in the Eurozone and the UK. However, traders can easily ignore these data points. Firstly, the European and British macroeconomic backdrop currently has a very weak influence on the market. Secondly, traders shrugged off a fairly significant UK unemployment report earlier this week. Today's reports are not among the most important in the US, though retail sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI) are worth noting. Retail sales are expected to show weak figures for April, when Trump's tariffs came into effect.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events, a series of speeches by representatives of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England is scheduled, but the policies of all three central banks are currently quite clear. We believe that the only factor still truly influencing the market is the trade war, along with US news that justifies selling the dollar. The escalation of the trade conflict has been paused, while Trump continues to announce the signing of trade deals, without offering concrete details. A renewed decline in the dollar could occur if Trump begins to introduce new tariffs, increase existing ones, or fails to reach trade agreements with most countries. However, the de-escalation process that has already started should at least occasionally support the US currency. That said, the market's overall sentiment toward the dollar remains extremely negative, making a strong rebound in the greenback still quite unlikely.

Conclusions:

Both currency pairs could move in either direction on this penultimate trading day of the week. The macroeconomic background should not be dismissed entirely—while reactions to it may be weak, even a mild response could influence intraday market direction.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.