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The wave structure for the GBP/USD instrument continues to indicate the formation of a bullish impulsive wave sequence. "Thanks" to Donald Trump, the wave pattern closely mirrors that of EUR/USD. Until February 28, we observed the development of a convincing corrective structure that caused no concern. However, demand for the U.S. dollar began to fall sharply, which resulted in the formation of a bullish five-wave structure. Wave 2 took the form of a single wave and was completed. Therefore, we are currently seeing a continuation of pound growth within wave 3, a process that has been unfolding for the past three weeks.
Given that the UK's news background has had no impact on the pound's strong rally, we can conclude that currency movements are being dictated entirely by Donald Trump. If (theoretically) Trump changes his trade policy, it's possible the trend could reverse—this time to the downside. Accordingly, in the coming months (or even years), we should carefully monitor every action from the White House.
The GBP/USD rate remained virtually unchanged on Friday. Although the end of the week has been packed with headlines, the market has been dull in terms of price action. Today, for the first time in three years, direct negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian delegations are taking place to discuss a temporary or permanent ceasefire. Talks began several hours ago in Turkey, and the world is watching closely. No outcomes have been reported yet, but even a temporary ceasefire would be a major success—and a chance for Donald Trump to declare that he ended the war.
Let's recall that Trump, for unknown reasons, promised to end the war in Ukraine even before officially taking office as president. His motivations are unclear. Perhaps he wants to be remembered as a leader who could deliver. Perhaps he hopes to be nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize. Or maybe he simply wants to reduce the financial burden on the U.S. budget caused by supporting Ukraine. In any case, if a ceasefire is achieved, Trump will undoubtedly claim credit.
Economic data has hardly sparked any interest from market participants. For the first time in a while, the UK economy posted a somewhat decent growth rate—but the pound barely reacted. Why would traders care about Britain's economy, which has been inching up by a few tenths of a percent every quarter for the past three years, when they have the support of someone like Donald Trump? Thanks to the American president alone, the pound has risen nearly 15 cents in a matter of months. And this may not be the end. Three months ago, hardly anyone predicted such a rally—or such aggressive tariffs imposed on half the world. Therefore, Trump still has the power to surprise the market, and the dollar may continue to weaken.
The wave pattern for GBP/USD has transformed. We are now dealing with a bullish impulsive segment of the trend. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, the markets may face many more shocks and reversals that conflict with the wave structure or any type of technical analysis. Wave 3 continues to form, with the next targets set at 1.3541 and 1.3714. As such, I continue to consider buying opportunities, since the market currently shows no signs of wanting to reverse this trend.
On the higher wave scale, the structure has also shifted to bullish. We can now assume the development of a long-term upward trend. The nearest targets are 1.2782 and 1.2650.
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