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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its decline on Tuesday and consolidated below the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3520. This means that the downtrend could continue today toward the next target at 1.3425. A consolidation above 1.3520 or a rebound from 1.3425 would favor the pound and signal a return to growth, with 1.3620 as the next target.
The wave setup clearly indicates a bullish trend. The latest upward wave broke the previous high, while the most recent downward wave failed to break the previous low. Bulls may find it hard to sustain further growth without new tariff-related announcements from Donald Trump—but such news did emerge at the end of last week. On Monday, it was reported that the planned tariff hike was postponed, which allowed bears to go on the offensive, though only modestly.
On Tuesday, the news backdrop wasn't very favorable for the pound, with the day's only report supporting sellers (or the U.S. dollar). However, the bullish trend remains intact, and traders will turn their attention to the minutes of the May FOMC meeting later today. These minutes usually don't contain significant surprises, as key information is already conveyed in the post-meeting statement or through Jerome Powell's remarks. The FOMC Chair frequently outlines the Fed's views on inflation, growth, and monetary policy expectations. Therefore, no major revelations are expected from the minutes tonight.
Despite two days of selling, I believe bears will struggle to continue their advance. Still, the chart allows for a decline toward 1.3425. However, a true trend reversal to bearish territory would only be confirmed by a break below the previous wave low at 1.3248—a level that remains far out of reach for now. Trump's trade policy hasn't undergone significant changes, so the dollar remains unstable and unattractive to many traders.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435, suggesting the upward trend may continue toward the next retracement level at 127.2% – 1.3795. There are no emerging divergences on any indicators today. The bullish trend remains strong and unchallenged—and may continue until greater clarity emerges regarding the global trade landscape. The fate of Trump's dollar is of little concern to the market; no one is trying to rescue the U.S. currency.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
Sentiment among non-commercial traders was largely unchanged in the latest report. Long positions fell by 1,396 and short positions rose by 1,827. The bears have long lost their edge, and the gap between long and short positions is now 24,000 in favor of the bulls: 88,000 vs. 64,000.
In my view, the pound still has downward potential, but recent developments are gradually reshaping the market in the long term. Over the past three months, long positions rose from 65,000 to 88,000. Short positions dropped from 76,000 to 64,000.
With Trump in office, confidence in the dollar has eroded, and the COT data confirms that traders lack strong interest in buying the greenback. So regardless of the general news flow, the dollar continues to weaken under the influence of Trump's actions.
Economic Calendar – U.S. & U.K.:
Only one major event is on the economic calendar for Wednesday. The news background could affect sentiment—but likely only in the evening.
GBP/USD Forecast & Trading Tips:
Short positions were valid upon the hourly close below 1.3520, targeting 1.3425. These trades can be held open today. Buy opportunities will arise from a rebound at 1.3425 (or 1.3435) with a target of 1.3520, or on a close above 1.3520, aiming for 1.3620.
Fibonacci Levels:
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