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During the European session on Thursday, the Japanese yen maintained stability, allowing the USD/JPY pair to hold above the key 143.00 level amid a moderate rise in the U.S. dollar.
Investors are confident that the Bank of Japan will continue raising interest rates in response to rising inflation, which has been eroding real wages in Japan for the fourth consecutive month. These factors, along with ongoing trade uncertainties and heightened geopolitical risks, are limiting deeper losses for the traditionally safe-haven Far Eastern currency.
At the same time, the Bank of Japan's hawkish expectations sharply contrast with forecasts for the Federal Reserve, which, according to yesterday's weak U.S. data, is likely to begin cutting rates in 2025. This caps the potential for significant U.S. dollar strength, supporting the low-yielding yen and requiring caution from the bulls in the USD/JPY pair.
Traders should keep an eye on upcoming negotiations between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, as well as the release of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, both of which could significantly impact the USD/JPY pair's dynamics in the near term.
From a technical standpoint, on the 4-hour chart, the overnight drop near the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and subsequent price decline favor the bears. Moreover, oscillators across all timeframes remain in negative territory, suggesting further downside for the pair. Therefore, any upward moves can be viewed as selling opportunities around the 143.70 level or the 50-SMA, with gains likely capped near the psychological 144.00 level. However, a break above this level would pave the way for higher prices, triggering short-covering and allowing bulls to target the psychological 145.00 level.
On the other hand, the 142.40 level will offer support for the USD/JPY pair, followed by the 142.10 level or last week's low. A decisive break below the latter would make the pair vulnerable to further declines.
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