11.06.202518:33 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

At this stage, the Japanese yen continues to trade within an intraday consolidation range, approaching the two-week low against the U.S. dollar reached yesterday. The main factors influencing the movement of the Far Eastern currency include today's data showing a slowdown in Japan's annual wholesale inflation for May, which eased pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. This contributes to the yen's weakness and highlights reduced demand for safe-haven assets.

Another contributing factor is the optimistic sentiment regarding U.S.–China trade negotiations, which also weighs on the yen as a safe-haven currency. At the same time, market participants are cautious: yen bears are not rushing into aggressive selling, as uncertainty remains regarding the Bank of Japan's future policy, which may continue its current monetary stance.

As for the U.S. dollar, the Federal Reserve is expected to lower borrowing costs in 2025, limiting upward potential and preventing a strong bullish impulse. Today, it may be prudent to wait for the release of U.S. consumer inflation data, which could serve as a key driver for further movements.

Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, positive oscillators on the 4-hour and hourly charts favor USD/JPY bulls. However, repeated failures to build momentum beyond the psychological 145.00 level suggest it would be wise to wait for sustained buying beyond the 145.30 level before positioning for further upside.

After that, spot prices could break through intermediate resistance in the 145.65–145.70 zone on the way to the round level of 146.00, and eventually rise toward the May high.

On the other hand, the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, near the 144.30 level, is shielding immediate losses ahead of the 144.00 round figure. A convincing break below this level would invalidate the bullish outlook and shift the short-term bias in favor of USD/JPY bears. Subsequent declines could drag spot prices down to the 143.60–143.50 level, with further losses pushing below the 143.00 psychological level.