12.06.202500:35 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Donald Trump Plans to Suppress the Uprising

For several consecutive days, protests and unrest have continued in some major U.S. cities, sparked by Donald Trump's new immigration policy. This time, the U.S. President has decided to deport all illegal immigrants. Legally, Trump is absolutely within his rights to do so. However, this turn of events has not been well received by Americans residing in the U.S.—legally or illegally. Many of Trump's decisions are viewed by the public as highly controversial. For instance, the White House leader plans to significantly cut social programs while import tariffs could raise consumer prices. This will especially hit low-income individuals the hardest—those same people Trump also aims to deprive of medical assistance programs. And since, in any country, low-income groups outnumber middle- and high-income citizens, it's no surprise that crowds have taken to the streets.

The White House responded by deploying National Guard troops and the Marine Corps to suppress the protests, which led to numerous clashes, riots, and even the burning of American flags. The situation has become especially tense in Los Angeles, a city historically home to many immigrants. California Governor Gavin Newsom called Trump's actions illegal and anti-democratic. According to him, the clashes and unrest were provoked by immigration officers conducting street raids to identify illegal immigrants. He stated that people have the right to express their opinions and protest, and he intends to file a lawsuit against the sitting president.

However, Trump believes the current events may qualify as a "rebellion," allowing him to invoke the Insurrection Act, which permits regular military forces to suppress civil disorder. Meanwhile, the protests and demonstrations are spreading to other cities. The "uprising fever" is rapidly intensifying, and protests against Trump's immigration policy are expected soon in all major U.S. cities. One wonders—will Trump actually deploy the military against his own people, who in part put him in office? Remember that a nation's army is meant to protect the country and its citizens. But Trump doesn't seem to care who he fights with. In my opinion, the U.S. dollar remains extremely vulnerable.

Wave Pattern for EUR/USD

Based on the conducted analysis, I conclude that the EUR/USD instrument continues forming an upward wave segment. In the near future, the wave structure will entirely depend on the news background related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. Wave 3 of the upward segment is still in progress, and its targets may extend up to the 1.25 mark. Therefore, I consider long positions with targets above the 1.1572 level, corresponding to 423.6% on the Fibonacci scale and beyond. It's important to remember that a de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the upward trend—but at the moment, there are no signs of reversal or de-escalation.

Wave Pattern for GBP/USD

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We are now dealing with an upward, impulsive wave segment. Unfortunately, under Trump, the markets may face many more shocks and reversals that defy wave analysis and all forms of technical forecasting. Nonetheless, the current working scenario remains relevant. Wave 3 of the upward trend continues to build, with the nearest target at 1.3708, corresponding to 200.0% on the Fibonacci scale from the assumed global Wave 2. Therefore, I continue to consider buying, as the market has yet to show signs of reversing the trend.

Core Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures must be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often shift.
2. If there's no confidence in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.