23.06.202517:51 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

At the moment, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has reached a new two-week high, driven by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve.

The U.S. central bank has maintained its forecast for two rate cuts by the end of 2025 but reduced its outlook to just one 25-basis-point cut in both 2026 and 2027. This adjustment is linked to concerns that tariff measures proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump could accelerate consumer price growth, thereby creating favorable conditions for dollar strength and upward momentum in the USD/CHF pair.

At the same time, the Swiss franc is supported by a statement from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which announced its intention not to cut rates further. This disappoints investors who had expected a potential return to negative rates this year. Amid growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty in global trade relations, demand for the Swiss franc as a safe-haven asset has increased, exerting downward pressure on the USD/CHF pair.

Despite positive signals for both the U.S. dollar and the Swiss franc, the current fundamental backdrop remains mixed, requiring caution in position-taking. In the near term, traders should focus on the release of preliminary U.S. business activity indices. These data could influence global risk sentiment and provide short-term trading opportunities in the USD/CHF pair—especially in the context of the expected Iranian response to U.S. airstrikes on its nuclear facilities.

From a technical perspective, strong resistance is located at the round level of 0.8200, where the price has stalled. If this level is broken, the pair is likely to move toward the supply zone around 0.8250. However, since oscillators on the daily chart remain in negative territory, the pair has so far failed to break through the 0.8200 level.

The nearest support currently lies at 0.8155. A drop below this level would bring the next support at the round level of 0.8100 into play.