22.07.202520:23 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD Analysis on July 22, 2025

The wave pattern on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has remained unchanged for several consecutive months. The formation of an upward trend segment continues, while the news background still supports all currencies except the U.S. dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump was intended to boost budget revenues and eliminate the trade deficit. However, these targets have not been achieved—trade agreements are being signed with great difficulty, and Trump's "One Big Law" is projected to increase the U.S. national debt by 3 trillion dollars over the next few years. Market sentiment toward Trump's first six months remains largely negative, with his actions perceived as a threat to U.S. stability and prosperity.

Currently, wave 3 is presumably still unfolding and may become much more extended than it appears now. However, its internal structure has taken on a five-wave form, which could indicate completion. If this assumption is correct, the upward movement will likely continue over the coming months, though a corrective wave sequence—or even just a single correction wave—may emerge in the short term, which is not uncommon in a strong uptrend.

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair gained 70 basis points. Most of Tuesday saw little movement, but by the evening, the pair had risen another 60 points. There are very few events scheduled this week, so the market's passivity is not surprising. No economic reports were released on Monday. Today, Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak, and tomorrow brings the U.S. existing home sales report—an event with little market significance. So far this week, Powell's speech is the only potentially impactful event. However, it's worth noting that his appearance does not guarantee any new or important information.

Essentially, the only consistent source of news remains Donald Trump. The U.S. president continues to generate headlines daily, disrupting market stability. Moreover, his statements often contradict one another. For example, a couple of weeks ago, Trump raised tariffs on imports from the European Union to 50%, effective August 1. Yet on Monday, he announced that he is preparing to raise tariffs to 30% if a trade deal is not signed by the beginning of next month.

Various media outlets are reporting conflicting information. Some U.S. news agencies have claimed that Trump now supports the implementation of "base tariffs" on European imports, possibly set at 15% or 20%. On top of those tariffs, Trump wants to conclude a trade agreement with the EU. In practice, this means he wants to impose tariffs and also secure a trade deal on terms favorable to the U.S. In Brussels, this whirlwind of contradictory statements is likely causing confusion and frustration among officials. A successful breakout above the 1.1705 level, corresponding to 127.2% on the Fibonacci scale, would indicate the market's readiness to continue buying the EUR/USD pair.

Overall Conclusions

Based on the above analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair continues to form an upward trend. The wave pattern remains heavily influenced by news related to Trump's policies and U.S. foreign affairs, with no positive developments in sight. The trend segment could extend toward the 1.2500 level. Therefore, I continue to consider long positions, targeting 1.1875 (which corresponds to 161.8% on the Fibonacci scale) and above. A failed attempt to break through 1.1572, equivalent to 100.0% on the Fibonacci scale, signals the market's readiness for renewed buying.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are harder to trade and often lead to changes.
2. If you are uncertain about the market, it's better not to enter.
3. Absolute certainty in market direction does not exist. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.