05.08.202511:38 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The AUD/JPY pair is struggling to attract buying interest, trading near the psychological level of 95.00 and close to the nearly four-week low reached the previous day. Moreover, the technical picture suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is downward.

Friday's break below the round level of 96.00 and the subsequent drop below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) were key factors confirming the bearish trend. In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has just started to show negative momentum, supporting the short-term bearish outlook.

However, before preparing for a continuation of the recent pullback from the multi-month high reached in July, bears should wait for a firm move below the 95.00 level.

Once this level is breached, AUD/JPY could accelerate its corrective decline toward the intermediate support at 94.80, then head toward the 94.35 area, followed by a potential test of levels below the psychological mark of 94.00 in the near term.

On the other hand, the 200-day SMA at 95.55 serves as a strong barrier ahead of the 96.00 level. A breakout above this level could trigger a short-covering rally, pushing AUD/JPY toward the next resistance at 96.50, followed by 96.80 and the psychological level of 97.00.